The Black Swan Thinking Project - Session 1: Why The Little Dutch Boy Was The Little Doomed Boy

ConverSketch by Karina Branson

My thanks to everyone who came to the first Black Swan Thinking Session. The recording of the session, and Karina Branson's excellent graphic summary are linked above.

Here are the links to the toolset and sample models discussed in the first session:

• Insight Maker: https://insightmaker.com
• Simple Bathtub: https://insightmaker.com/insight/208142/Simple-Tub
• Systems Archetypes: https://insightmaker.com/insight/538/Archetypes
• Exponential Growth: https://insightmaker.com/insight/24250/Exponential-Growth-Archetype
• Exponential Decay: https://insightmaker.com/insight/191/Exponential-Decay
• Goal-Seeking: https://insightmaker.com/insight/24263/Goal-Seeking-Archetype
• Two Competing Balancing Loops: https://insightmaker.com/insight/47088/Stock-with-Two-Competing-Balancing-Loop
• One Reinforcing & One Balancing Loop: https://insightmaker.com/insight/47153/Stock-with-One-Reinforcing-Loop-and-One-Balancing-Loop
• Indecision: https://insightmaker.com/insight/24698/Indecision-Archetype
• Tragedy of the Commons: https://insightmaker.com/insight/24744/Tragedy-of-the-Commons-Archetype
• A Catastrophe Study: https://insightmaker.com/insight/152445/A-Catastrophe-Study

Finally, here are some additional resources on basic system dynamics modeling:

• Donella H. Meadows, Thinking In Systems: A Primer
• Erik Pruyt, Small Systems Dynamics Models for Big Issues: Triple Jump towards Real-World Complexity
• Juan Martín García, Theory and Practical Exercises of System Dynamics: Cases and basic examples in industry, environment, business, and research